Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.363569 0.414293 0.469362 0.533569 0.606358 0.686298 0.780741
2025-09-07 0.297349 0.366283 0.446901 0.548066 0.671565 0.817386 1.002630
2025-09-14 0.233588 0.308976 0.403329 0.529925 0.695209 0.903578 1.186196
2025-09-21 0.190410 0.269154 0.374131 0.524012 0.732258 1.011155 1.412972
2025-09-28 0.155904 0.234564 0.345825 0.514194 0.762116 1.113379 1.648659
2025-10-05 0.136354 0.217412 0.338545 0.532015 0.832618 1.281227 2.001099
2025-10-12 0.116321 0.195958 0.321322 0.532018 0.876379 1.416006 2.324962
2025-10-19 0.101418 0.179943 0.309760 0.538637 0.930890 1.574287 2.708256
2025-10-26 0.090445 0.168521 0.303686 0.552974 0.999666 1.764387 3.170540
2025-11-02 0.076433 0.149306 0.281201 0.535245 1.010374 1.857863 3.480801
2025-11-09 0.063639 0.130094 0.255622 0.507674 0.998793 1.909840 3.723420
2025-11-16 0.055253 0.117917 0.241159 0.498540 1.019789 2.023069 4.094322
2025-11-23 0.047656 0.106295 0.226491 0.487803 1.038305 2.138499 4.495641
2025-11-30 0.043130 0.100349 0.222364 0.498004 1.100928 2.349774 5.121346
2025-12-07 0.036826 0.089363 0.205887 0.479347 1.100219 2.432606 5.494436
2025-12-14 0.032354 0.081751 0.195522 0.472462 1.124065 2.570540 6.006972
2025-12-21 0.028320 0.074435 0.184616 0.462511 1.139389 2.692048 6.501417
2025-12-28 0.026345 0.071849 0.184375 0.477770 1.215883 2.961589 7.375011
2026-01-04 0.023723 0.067109 0.178109 0.477191 1.254007 3.147470 8.077961
2026-01-11 0.021715 0.063639 0.174475 0.482716 1.308275 3.379667 8.928586
2026-01-18 0.020236 0.061359 0.173570 0.495278 1.382697 3.672033 9.973775
2026-01-25 0.017754 0.055733 0.162739 0.479143 1.378395 3.764375 10.515055
2026-02-01 0.015278 0.049636 0.149573 0.454256 1.346180 3.779380 10.852998